Cy Young Award Winners - Recency Bias Matters!

For those who have not been following, I first said in September, then reiterated in October, that recency bias affects the results for the winner of Major League Baseball's (MLB's) best pitchers - also known as the Cy Young Awards. This is because the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) have a tendency to favour more recent pitching performances and you can read about why here.

With the commencement of the 2017 MLB season, on 15 November, the results of the Cy Young voting were publicised and my suspicions were confirmed:

AL Cy Young Winner
Player	My Predicted Probability	Actual Cy Young Vote Points
Corey Kluber Cleveland Indians	99.7%	204
Chris Sale Boston Red Sox	0.3%	126

NL Cy Young Winner
Player	My Predicted Probability	Actual Cy Young Vote Points
Max Scherzer Washington Nationals	89.3%	201
Clayton Kershaw Los Angeles Dodgers	0.7%	126
Stephen Strasburg Washington Nationals	6.4%	81