This is one of the most highly anticipated events of the year (at least in the world of Sports and Economics) where each Major League Baseball team releases their promotional giveaway schedule.
While I will not be highlighting some of my favourite promos (2018 San Francisco Giant's Mount Crushmore would be hard to beat), I will be instead going through each team's promo schedule to find the optimal days for each team to feature a promo in order to maximum revenue.
Then I will determine which teams may be leaving money on the table.
Hint, it's all of them.
So, how do I do it? First, a couple of things you need to know about promotional giveaways at sporting events:
- Promos increase attendance by approximately 5%.
- Tickets to games featuring a promos are usually more expensive.
Similar to previous years, to predict the optimal promo schedule for each team, I undertake the following steps:
- Scrape each team's website for their promotional giveaway schedule for 2019.
- Parse through the text of each schedule to identify dates with promos such as:
- replica World Series rings;
- collectible coins;
- collectible pins; and
- Bobbleheads (!)
- Predict attendance at each game with and without a hypothetical promo using a simple regression model.
- Choose the best dates for which promos would provide the most value to the team.
- Compare my promo schedule to the actual promo schedule and estimate the foregone revenue to each team.
- Repeat steps 3-5 one thousand times in a Monte Carlo simulation.
In 2019, there appear to be 227 promo days across MLB which is in the ballpark of what we have become accustomed to seeing in previous seasons. I determine a "promo" here as a free item given to fans with an estimated resale value of at least $10.
My model finds that there are 180 games sub-optimally chosen to feature a promo, a reassignment rate of 79%! My schedule would have sold an additional 130 thousand tickets to the tune of $5.0 million!
This is the largest number in the, albeit brief, history of Sports and Economics (in that order)!
Furthermore, This year, no team was optimising their promotional schedule. On the good side of things, the Detroit Tigers and the Kansas City Royals have correctly assigned half of their promo days, but are also among the eight teams to offer four or less promos for the 2019 season.
Speaking of slim offerings, the Colorado Rockies are the only team with but a single promo in 2019: a measly pennant flag freebie celebrating their 2018 Wild Card victory over the Chicago Cubs. Ironically, the Rockies still have sub-optimally chosen which to feature their one and only promo, and it will cost them about $15.6 thousand (however, relatively chump change compared to their $260 million third baseman).
On the other (bad) side of things, for the first time in our history, the biggest loser is not the St. Louis Cardinals. Similarly, the Los Angeles Dodgers have fallen out of the top three! Instead the dubious honour goes to the San Francisco Giants, who are generous enough to offer 12 promos but have picked 11 of the promo days sub-optimally. Ever since the Giants' sell-out streak ended in 2017, they have experienced much more volatility in their home-game attendance. The Giant's promo schedule, however, tends to favour days for which they are already predicted to sell out, and are therefore unable to capitalise on the increased demand for the promo days. My model suggests they are forgoing $1.2 million in ticket revenue - nearly enough to have kept their beloved Hunter Pence from signing elsewhere.
Below is the full list of forgone revenue split by team. How did your team fair?
My model finds that there are 180 games sub-optimally chosen to feature a promo, a reassignment rate of 79%! My schedule would have sold an additional 130 thousand tickets to the tune of $5.0 million!
This is the largest number in the, albeit brief, history of Sports and Economics (in that order)!
2019 - $5.0 million
Furthermore, This year, no team was optimising their promotional schedule. On the good side of things, the Detroit Tigers and the Kansas City Royals have correctly assigned half of their promo days, but are also among the eight teams to offer four or less promos for the 2019 season.
Speaking of slim offerings, the Colorado Rockies are the only team with but a single promo in 2019: a measly pennant flag freebie celebrating their 2018 Wild Card victory over the Chicago Cubs. Ironically, the Rockies still have sub-optimally chosen which to feature their one and only promo, and it will cost them about $15.6 thousand (however, relatively chump change compared to their $260 million third baseman).
On the other (bad) side of things, for the first time in our history, the biggest loser is not the St. Louis Cardinals. Similarly, the Los Angeles Dodgers have fallen out of the top three! Instead the dubious honour goes to the San Francisco Giants, who are generous enough to offer 12 promos but have picked 11 of the promo days sub-optimally. Ever since the Giants' sell-out streak ended in 2017, they have experienced much more volatility in their home-game attendance. The Giant's promo schedule, however, tends to favour days for which they are already predicted to sell out, and are therefore unable to capitalise on the increased demand for the promo days. My model suggests they are forgoing $1.2 million in ticket revenue - nearly enough to have kept their beloved Hunter Pence from signing elsewhere.
Below is the full list of forgone revenue split by team. How did your team fair?
And thus concludes another great year of analysis on bobbleheads, or does it?
Stay tuned for future bobblehead-related talk on Sports and Economics (in that order)!
PS. if you like what you are reading and want to support Sports and Economics (in that order), please feel free to comment, share, and click on some ads!
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