Two saves too many: how gambling has led to the NHL scrutinizing what is and what is not a shot on net

TLDR: Proliferation of sports gambling has enticed the NHL to scrutinize what is and what is not a ‘shot on net,’ resulting in fewer shots on net in 2024/25.

What does this mean for player stats and future compensation? Stayed tuned...

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After a long hiatus for no particular reason, I have decided to drop a short post.

Shots on net are down 6% this NHL season (through the “All-Star” break) compared to last. Many things could be driving this result: more parity among teams, better equipment allowing for players to ‘safely’ block shots (a would-be shot on net does not count if it is blocked), change in the enforcement of penalties, fewer games going to overtime (2023-24 had the fewest percentage of games go to overtime in a season since the Matrix was released and the 2024-25 percentage is currently lower), or simply changes in gameplay (i.e., favouring quality shooting opportunities rather than quantity).

One reason—that is not heavily cited—is the growth of sports gambling. Specifically, the growing popularity of ‘prop bets’ (‘prop,’ short for ‘proposition’) has led to individuals wagering on how many shots a player, or saves a goalie, will register on a particular night.

The definition of a shot is a scoring attempt where the puck is directed towards the opposing net, resulting in either a goal or a save by the goalie. Previously, the NHL would record a shot on net even if the puck would have clearly missed the net if the goalie did not interrupt its path. Given that the league and many of its teams are partnered with a sportsbook, the league has applied more scrutiny to shot attempts. A stricter definition of shot of net is now any scoring attempt where the puck would necessarily result in a goal but for the goalie’s save. Instead of having an observer tally the number of shots on net according to their own assessment, the league is now using puck-tracking technology to determine whether a puck directed towards the net would have entered the net absent the goalie–harmless shots attempts that would have missed the net but were counted as a goalie’s save are now excluded from records.  

Below is the official number of shots per team, per game in the ‘Salary Cap Era’ (data from Hockey-Reference.com). 

There are two fewer shot attempts this season than last, breaking a general upwards sloping trend since the introduction of the salary cap. Shots were likely going to level off at some point, but what is telling is that the number of goalie saves per team per game has also declined by two.

What does this mean? Two saves removed from each goalie’s save percentage’s numerator and two shot attempts removed from its denominator means that, on average, goalie appear to have gotten worse, relative to the past few seasons. 

Past save percentages likely benefitted from having shots that would have been off-target being counted as saves. With the new save percentages, how will this affect free-agency compensation? What about arbitration? 

I challenge someone with more time and energy to solve this problem!